Models that assume people don't change
The mathematical models used to forecast epidemics, climate-policy shifts, and other societal challenges mostly treat human behavior as static — yet behavior is what drives real-world outcomes. COVID-19 made the gap vivid: shifting risk perception, fatigue, and polarization repeatedly broke models that assumed people don't change.
A calibrated behavioral engine for computational models
Sociodyne builds a behavioral engine for computational models. We couple established mechanistic models — compartmental epidemic models and system-dynamics simulations — bidirectionally with AI agents that represent how people perceive risk, learn from one another, and adapt their protective behavior.
Unlike general-purpose models that predict behavior in isolation, our engine is grounded in a published cognitive-behavioral framework and calibrated to real behavioral and epidemiological data — so it captures how populations actually respond, producing sharper forecasts and clearer guidance on how to time and target interventions.
Behavior at scale is finally practical
Behavior is the acknowledged missing piece in these models, and modern AI finally makes it practical to represent rich, heterogeneous behavior at scale. By post-training compact models on behavioral data, we make that behavioral layer both calibrated to how people actually respond and efficient enough to run at population scale.
Where the engine goes
We begin with infectious-disease forecasting and intervention design, then extend the same engine to climate, public health, and other behavior-driven problems.
- Public-health agencies
- Pharmaceutical & vaccine developers
- Health systems
- Insurers & reinsurers
Ways to work with us
Platform subscriptions, licensing of the behavioral engine and API, and custom modeling and decision-support engagements.
Research foundation
Built on an active NSF-funded research program and peer-reviewed publications in cognitive and behavioral epidemiological modeling, developed at the University of Vermont.
A public-benefit company
Sociodyne is a Vermont benefit corporation. We are developing our platform in partnership with the University of Vermont, supported by federal research funding, and validating it on a first infectious-disease use case.